Sports Advisors 12/25
NFL
San Diego (11-3, 7-7 ATS) at Tennessee (7-7, 6-8 ATS)
Two of the NFL’s hottest teams – despite their disparate SU records – get together when the red-hot Chargers take on the surging Titans in a Christmas night clash at LP Field.
San Diego squeaked past Cincinnati 27-24 Sunday on a 52-yard Nate Kaeding field goal in the waning seconds, notching its ninth consecutive SU win (6-3 ATS), but falling short of covering as a 6½-point home chalk. QB Philip Rivers (3,891 passing yards, 25 TDs, 9 INTs) continues to lead the league’s fifth-best passing attack (268.9 ypg), and the Chargers are fourth in scoring (27.8 ppg), having put up at least 27 points six times during their current win streak.
Tennessee, which started the year 0-6 (1-5 ATS), has since bounced back with a 7-1 run (5-3 ATS) to actually put itself on the edge of the muddled AFC playoff picture. Last week, the Titans topped Miami 27-24 in overtime, getting another solid day from RB Chris Johnson (104 rushing yards, 55 receiving yards). Johnson has a league-leading 1,730 rushing yards (5.7 ypc, 11 TDs), and he’s logged 2,176 all-purpose yards with 13 combined rushing and receiving touchdowns. Behind Johnson, the Titans’ running game is second in the NFL at 162.6 ypg.
In addition to Johnson’s heroics, once-fragile QB Vince Young has settled down nicely. Since replacing Kerry Collins as starter following the six-game season-opening slide, Young has 10 TD passes and just four INTs. The Titans have scored 27 points or more five times since he entered the lineup, after scoring 17 or less in five of the first six games.
San Diego is on a 5-0 SU and ATS tear in this rivalry, most recently winning 17-6 as a hefty 10½-point home favorite in the wild-card playoff round two years ago. Four weeks prior to that, in regular-season play, the Chargers rallied for a 23-17 overtime road victory as a 1½-point road underdog. During its five-game SU and ATS winning streak in this series, San Diego has cashed three times at home and twice at Tennessee.
The Chargers have now won 17 consecutive games in December (11-6 ATS), having not lost in the final month of the year since the 2005 season finale. Also, despite failing to get the cash against Cincinnati on Sunday, the Bolts remain on a handful of additional ATS upswings, including 5-2 overall, 4-1 after a non-cover, 4-1 on the highway, 20-6-3 as an underdog and 9-3 in December.
The Titans are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 starts as a home chalk of up to three points, but they are otherwise in pointspread ruts of 1-8 against winning teams, 3-7 as a favorite, 2-6 after a non-cover and 3-7 within the AFC.
The under is 3-1-1 in San Diego’s last five roadies, but the Chargers are on “over” runs of 6-1-1 in December, 8-3-1 against AFC foes and 11-5 coming off a SU win. The over for Tennessee is on streaks of 19-9-1 in December and 9-4 with the Titans a home chalk, but the under is on rolls for Tennessee of 14-6-1 against winning teams and 21-10-1 following a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO
NBA
Boston (22-5, 12-15 ATS) at Orlando (22-7, 16-13 ATS)
The top two teams in the Eastern Conference square off in a nationally televised Christmas Day game inside Amway Arena in Orlando.
The Celtics, winners of 13 of their last 14 overall (7-7 ATS), come in with the conference’s top record but without the services of Paul Pierce, who is out for at least two weeks with a knee infection. Pierce had 16 fourth-quarter points in Tuesday’s 103-94 home win over Indiana, with the Celtics coming up short as 14½-point favorites. Boston has scored 103 points or more in five of its last six games, with the only exception coming in a 98-97 home loss to the Sixers on Dec. 18 as an 11½-point favorite.
The Magic have won three straight (2-1 ATS), including Wednesday’s 102-87 home victory over Houston, with Orlando cashing as an 8 ½-point chalk. The Magic are 12-2 at home (8-6 ATS) this season, averaging 105.4 ppg.
These played a thrilling seven-game playoff series in the Eastern Conference semifinals last season with Orlando winning Game 7 in Boston 101-82 as a 2½-point underdog. Back in November, the Magic went back to Boston and grabbed an 83-73 victory as six-point ‘dogs. Orlando has won and cashed in three straight against the Celtics and is 7-3 SU (6-4 ATS) in the last 10 clashes.
Boston is on pointspread surges of 5-2 on the road,47-19-1 as a road ‘dog and 6-1 on the road against a team with a winning home record, but the Celtics are on ATS slides of 2-5 overall, 1-6-1 after getting two days off, 3-7 after a non-cover and 1-4 against Eastern Conference teams. Orlando is 0-4 ATS in its last four after a spread-cover and 7-19 ATS in its last 26 as a home favorite of less than five points, but it is on positive ATS streaks of 15-3 against Atlantic Division teams, 8-3 after getting a day off and 5-2 on Fridays.
The Celtics have gone “over” the posted number in five of seven after a non-cover, eight of 11 Friday games and 16 of 22 after getting two days off, but they are on “under” streaks of 5-0 against teams with a winning record, 8-2 against Southeast Division teams and 3-1-1 against the Eastern Conference. The Magic have stayed below the total in five of seven overall and five straight against teams with a winning record, but they are on “over” runs of 10-4 at home, 8-3 after a straight-up win and 6-1 after a spread-cover.
Finally, in this rivalry, the “under” is 5-0 in the last five meetings and 5-1 in the last six matchups in Orlando.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO
Cleveland (22-8, 15-15 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (23-4, 12-15 ATS)
The annual Christmas Day marquee matchup has LeBron James and the Cavaliers making the trek to the Hollywood to face Kobe Bryant and the Lakers for national television inside Staples Center.
Cleveland is wrapping up a four-game West Coast road trip today (2-1 SU and ATS) and is coming off Wednesdays 117-104 overtime win in Sacramento, cashing as six-point favorites. The Cavs shut out Kings 13-0 in overtime, getting three straight 3-pointers from center Zydrunas Ilgauskas in overtime to pull away for its seventh win in its last eight games (4-4 ATS). Cleveland is 11-6 SU and ATS on the highway this season.
Los Angeles won its fifth in a row (2-3 ATS) on Tuesday, topping Oklahoma City 111-108 but coming up well short as a 10-point home favorite. Bryant had 40 points and eight rebounds against the Thunder to prepare for his matchup with the Cavs. The Lakers are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven overall, but they are an impressive 16-2 at home this season (8-8 ATS). Also, in addition to winning five in a row, they’re on a 16-1 SU roll.
Los Angeles swept the season series from the Cavaliers last year, getting a 105-88 home win as a five-point favorite and then going to Cleveland in February and scoring a 101-91 road victory as a five-point ‘dog. Prior to last year, the Cavaliers had won five straight (4-1 ATS) over the Lakers. The underdog has gotten the cash in four of the last five series clashes.
Cleveland is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games after getting one day off, but the Cavs are on positive ATS streaks of 4-1 on the road, 17-8 on Fridays and 8-3 on the road against teams with winning home records. The Lakers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five Friday games, but they’re on positive pointspread runs of 7-3 against Central Division teams and 5-2 at home against teams with a winning home record.
The Cavaliers are on several “under” streaks, including 44-19 after a spread-cover, 5-1-1 on Fridays and 4-0 against winning teams, but they’re also on “over” runs of 3-1-1 on the road, 6-2 as ‘dogs and 3-1-1 against Western Conference teams. Los Angeles is on a plethora of “under” runs, including 7-2 overall, 16-7-1 against Eastern Conference teams, 6-2 at home against teams with a winning road record and 23-9 after getting two days off. In this budding rivalry, the “under” is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Denver (20-9, 15-14 ATS) at Portland (19-12, 16-14-1 ATS)
The Trail Blazers return home after a four-game road trip and welcome the Nuggets to the Rose Garden in Portland.
Denver snapped a two-game losing streak on Wednesday with a 124-104 beating of the first-place Hawks, easily cashing as a 3½-point home chalk. The Nuggets had failed to cash in six of the its seven games (3-4 SU) and had only reached triple digits in three of those seven, losing each time they were held in double figures.
After losing in Orlando to open the road trip, Portland rattled off three straight wins (SU and ATS), including Wednesday’s 98-94 upset of the Spurs as a 12-point underdog. Second-year guard Jerryd Bayless led the upset with 31 points and seven assists in his first-career start, filling in for injured All-Star Brandon Roy, who is listed as questionable for tonight’s contest.
The home team won and covered in all four matchups between these two last season, but Denver went to Portland in the season-opener this year and got a 97-94 win, cashing as a 7½-point underdog. The Nuggets are 5-2 ATS in the last seven series clashes and 25-10-1 in the last 36 meetings overall, including 12-5-1 in their last 18 trips to Portland.
Denver is on ATS slides of 2-6 overall, 0-4 on the road, 1-5 on Fridays and 1-4 against Western Conference teams, but the Nuggets are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 after a spread-cover and 6-2 in their last eight against winning teams. The Blazers are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six at home, but otherwise on positive pointspread surges of 4-1-1 overall, 8-2 against Northwest Division teams, 9-2 on Fridays and 3-0-1 against Western Conference teams.
It’s been nothing but “unders” for the Nuggets lately, including 19-9 on the road, 5-1 against the Western Conference, 6-2 after a straight-up win, 4-1 after getting a day off and 5-0 against teams with winning records. Portland has stayed “under” the posted number in 15 of 22 against the Western Conference, 15 of 21 against Northwest Division teams and five straight against teams with winning records. Finally, the last five clashes in this rivalry have stayed low, as have five of the last six meetings in Oregon.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
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